With time running short on a postseason berth, the Minnesota Vikings (7-9) will travel to the Motor City to face the NFC North rival Detroit Lions (11-5) in Week 18.

Everything is on the line for Minnesota in this one, as a victory would boost their playoff odds to 15% according to the New York Times’ postseason simulator. On the flip side, the Lions have already clinched a top-three seed in the conference by winning their division along with a three-game lead over all NFC South teams.

Despite that, Detroit head coach Dan Campbell has already committed to playing his starters against the Vikings. “That’s the plan right now, play our guys,” Campbell told reporters on January 1. Adding: “When we’re done with the season, they’re going to rest. I promise you that. They’re going to get plenty of time off.”

To help you prepare for this intense conclusion to the 2023 regular season, here are five predictions generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4:

1. Vikings Have Better Shot at Winning Than Vegas Anticipates

Although Quarter 4’s projected over/under total (45.0) appears to be within a half-point of six of the seven major sportsbooks — with the exception being PointsBet at 46.0 — our model does deviate a bit when it comes to the spread.

The projected lines currently range from Lions -3.5 to Lions -3.0 on all seven major sportsbooks including ESPN Bet. However, Quarter 4 has its line set at Lions -2.0 on the evening of January 4, which is a jump of 1-to-1.5 points in favor of the Vikings.

Detroit defeated Minnesota on the road by a score of 30-24 during the initial 2023 matchup between the two franchises on December 24. Of course, there’s a lot more at stake for the Vikings this time around.

Over the past five meetings, the Lions have gone 3-2. They have achieved a 6.33-point average differential during those victories, while the Vikings only have a 3-point average differential in the two games they’ve won.

2. Vikings QB Nick Mullens Will Pass for More Yardage Than Lions’ Jared Goff

Jared Goff struggled with turnovers against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, but he still ended up throwing for 271 passing yards — with 250 yards or more through the air in each of his past three starts.

Based on those recent numbers, our model projects a below-average performance from Goff (223.8 passing yards). In turn, Vikings starting quarterback Nick Mullens is expected to have a big game with 250.1 passing yards and a 71% completion rate.

Last time these two teams faced one another, Minnesota turned Mullens loose for 411 passing yards despite four interceptions. His yardage totals have varied significantly over the course of his four 2023 appearances, but this could be another outing where Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell throws the ball downfield early and often.

Superstar wideout Justin Jefferson is projected to lead the Minnesota passing attack on the receiving side, with an expected 5.0 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown.

3. Lions’ David Montgomery-Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Attack Won’t End Vikings’ Season

The Lions might finish off the Vikings on January 7, but according to our projections, it won’t be the powerful Detroit rushing attack that does Minnesota in.

On the season, the Lions have averaged 140.06 yards per game on the ground — a statistic that ranks fourth in the NFL. Despite that, Quarter 4 has running backs David Montgomery (73.6) and Jahmyr Gibbs (54.7) projected to rush for a combined total of 128.3 yards in Week 18.

Even if other positions were to add a few rushing yards to that tally, it will likely fall short of Detroit’s impressive 2023 average.

That could have something to do with the Vikings’ ninth-ranked defense against the run. In recent weeks, Minnesota has held opposing offenses to fewer than 140 rushing yards in eight out of their last 10 matchups.

Be advised though, the two outings they allowed over 140 rushing yards — totals of 143 and 177 — came in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.

4. Vikings Will Have More Trouble Stopping Lions TE Sam LaPorta Than WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Relative to their 2023 averages, Quarter 4 projects that the Vikings defense will have more trouble against rookie tight end Sam LaPorta than star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.

LaPorta averages 53.75 yards per game this season, but our model believes he’ll surpass that receiving total with 57.3 yards against Minnesota.

St. Brown, on the other hand, is expected to be held to just 6.4 receptions and 80.4 receiving yards. A performance like that would fall well short of his 91.4 yard per game average this year.

Of course, St. Brown’s snap count could factor into his total output in Week 18. Campbell noted that his starters will play, but he never said how much. Both LaPorta and St. Brown are key pieces for Detroit, but the Lions have a greater number of wide receivers on the roster than tight ends.

5. Vikings Will Favor Ty Chandler at RB Over Alexander Mattison

Finally, Quarter 4 predicts that the Vikings will stick with Ty Chandler as the lead back in Detroit. Below are his rushing projections compared to that of Alexander Mattison.

Chandler Projections: 11.9 attempts, 42.5 rushing yards, 1.7 receptions.

Mattison Projections: 5.1 attempts, 20.6 rushing yards, 1.0 reception.

Mattison returned from a brief absence on December 24, but Chandler has retained the starting job despite his presence. In recent weeks, the latter has been given 18 total carries divided pretty evenly between Weeks 16 and 17, while Mattison has only carried the ball five times over that span.

Either way, this rushing attack is not expected to carry the load for Mullens and the offense at just 63.1 combined yards between the two.