In 2021, the Cubs were in first place in late June before completely falling apart. They did so just in time for club president Jed Hoyer to tear down the remnants of the World Series championship core at the trade deadline before finishing the season 71-91. They were only three games better the next season, but last year some significant strides were made and the Cubs finished just one game out of a playoff spot at 83-79.

Still, a sour taste was left by the collapse. Through Sept. 6, the Cubs were in the second NL wild-card spot. They would lose 15 of their last 22, including six of seven to the Diamondbacks, who would finish one game ahead, make the playoffs and then win the NL pennant.

The aftermath of this included the Cubs swooping in to sign manager Craig Counsell away from the Brewers when most thought he was either staying put or ticketed for the Mets. This meant dismissing David Ross from his managerial duties when it looked like he would be retained.

In terms of player personnel, the Cubs were able to bring back top-10 MVP finisher Cody Bellinger during spring training and also added Japanese pitcher Shoto Imanaga via free agency. They also traded for slugging prospect Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte.

It’s fair to say that while the additions could be considered upgrades, the Cubs are mostly running it back. They’ll be looking for internal improvement in addition to the Brewers taking a step back for an opening to win the NL Central again. They did so three times in a five-year span but haven’t been nationally-relevant for a long stretch since that 2021 losing streak.

Is this the year they get it back?

Win total projection, odds

2023 record: 83-79 (second in NL Central)
2024 SportsLine over/under win total: 83.5
World Series odds (via SportsLine): +3500

Projected lineup

Ian Happ, LF
Seiya Suzuki, RF
Cody Bellinger, CF
Christopher Morel, 3B
Dansby Swanson, SS
Michael Busch, 1B
Nico Hoerner, 2B
Garrett Cooper/Patrick Wisdom, DH
Yan Gomes, C
There’s plenty of room to play with 1B, 3B, DH and CF thanks to the positional flexibility of some players. Bellinger can play center or first and if he’s at first, Mike Tauchman could start in center. Morel could DH, which would put Nick Madrigal or Wisdom at third. Cooper could play first. Basically, there will be lots of mixing and matching in just a few spots.

Projected rotation

LHP Justin Steele
LHP Shoto Imanaga
RHP Kyle Hendricks
LHP Jordan Wicks
RHP Javier Assad
Jameson Taillon is dealing with a back injury and will start the season on the injured list. If not, righty Hayden Wesneski and lefty Drew Smyly, who will be in the bullpen, could get starts as well.

Projected bullpen

Closer: RHP Adbert Alzolay
Setup: RHP Héctor Neris, RHP Julian Merryweather
Middle: RHP Mark Leiter Jr., RHP Jose Cuas, RHP Yency Almonte
Long: RHP Javier Assad, LHP Drew Smyly
Wesneski, lefty Luke Little and righties Daniel Palencia and Keegan Thompson will also figure heavily here.

Questions and upside with the offense

The Cubs were third in the NL in runs last season behind the Braves and Dodgers. Even the Phillies scored fewer times than the Cubs. There were some areas where it’s reasonable to conclude they overachieved, sure, and there are plenty of question marks worth mentioning (I’m gonna scream the next time I hear someone mention Bellinger’s “batted-ball data,” so we’ll pass on including that here). Those come with a lot of possible answers on the positive side, too.

• Happ has traded power for better on-base chops the last few seasons and expecting him to ever be a star is unrealistic at this point. He has bouts of inconsistency. He’s also shown he’s a pretty good bet to be a productive player. He had a .360 OBP last season with 21 homers and 14 steals and that looks great for a leadoff man.
• Suzuki has been very up and down for his two seasons in the majors so far. He was unplayable for stretches last season. His last benching, in early August, seemed to jar something loose. In his final 47 games, Suzuki hit .356/.414/.672 with 15 doubles, four triples, 11 homers, 37 RBI and 34 runs. It’s a partial season, obviously, but it’s a decent sample size. If he played like that for a full season he’d be an MVP candidate. Can he, though? Or will inconsistency continue to plague him?
• Bellinger has been covered plenty. We’ve seen it all already. He’s won an MVP and been legitimately one of the worst everyday hitters in baseball in a relatively short time frame.
• Morel seems to have almost as much variance. He can look like the worst hitter you’ve seen since Bad Day Javier Báez on occasion. He struck out 133 times last year in 388 at-bats. He also hit 26 homers and already has 42 MLB home runs in 767 at-bats. He’s been clutch, too.
• Swanson is likely never going to be a consistent hitter, but last year was one of his down years. His OPS+ the last four seasons, respectively: 111, 99, 114, 99. Maybe another 110+ output is coming. If not, he still hit 22 homers and drove home 80 runs last year.
• Busch has just 27 games of MLB experience and has hit .167/.247/.292. Last year in Triple-A, he hit .323/.431/.618 (it’s a hitter-friendly league, but those are still great numbers) and he’s been a consensus top-100 prospect for years. Can he perform at the big-league level?
• Hoerner has shown the ability to hit for average and steal bases at the MLB level. He’s yet to develop power, however, and as a result doesn’t walk much. What you get then is a .283 average with a 97 OPS+ last season. Will he develop power at the MLB level heading toward his age-27 season?

 Questions and upside with the rotation

We don’t need to dive as deep on the pitchers, but there’s similar variance. Steele was amazing last year, but is it repeatable? Will Taillon have a bounce-back season in his second Chicago year? How will Imanaga adapt to MLB? Wicks showed nice flashes, but it was a small sample and his last start was a disaster. So on and so forth.

What we do know is the upside is having one of the better rotations in baseball. And, as with most any rotation, things could go pretty badly.

The Counsell Effect?

For years, it has felt like Counsell added wins to the Brewers with his ability to deploy his bullpen with such success. Putting together a good lineup is probably a bit overrated, but there are ways to maximize efficiency and Counsell excels in doing so. A difference can already be spotted. The players in the top two spots in the order the most for the Cubs last season were Hoerner (97 OPS+), Swanson (99 OPS+) and Tauchman (100 OPS+) while the most productive hitters ended up being Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger and Morel. Those latter four look likely to be Counsell’s top four in the order to start the season, giving the best hitters the most plate appearances.

The margins are where Counsell feels like he earns his keep and this is just a small example. If he’s worth an extra 3-4 wins compared to Ross, that might well mean a playoff spot. It did last year.

Stacked farm

The best thing Hoyer has done with the franchise since deciding to trade Yu Darvish after the 2020 season was stock the farm, both with position players and pitchers. The consensus among prospect experts is that there’s a ton of depth nearly everywhere. In fact, MLB.com ranked the Cubs’ system second behind the Orioles (a prospect juggernaut at this point).

This means two things. First, we’ll see the big-league roster impacted by talented youngsters this season such as Busch, Wicks, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, Ben Brown and/or Cade Horton. Second, prospect depth is trade currency and if the Cubs are a piece or two away at the trade deadline, Hoyer has the ability to strike. Remember when we saw the Rangers trade for Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery last year? It might not be to that extent, but it’s possible Hoyer could swing a big move this coming July, if he so chooses.

What would make for a successful season?

I think they need to win the division. It wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster or anything like that if they missed the playoffs by two games, but it would be a step back or even simply a lateral move when the entire fan base was expecting a step forward, especially with an offseason bookended by essentially stealing Counsell and then bringing Bellinger back.

For now, making the playoffs would be a success. Any playoff advancement would then be gravy and also raise the bar for 2025. And that’s what you want after a furious and somewhat abbreviated rebuild. Once the Cubs are a playoff team again, then we can discuss why they should never need to rebuild.