Ahh, the smell of fresh blood. We’re talking rookies here… don’t get it twisted.

Fresh off the 2024 NFL Draft, it’s time to take a first swing at the first projection of the 53-man roster. For the loyal readers, this isn’t the start of my yearly Rosterology articles per se, but merely a peak into the position groups and who’s in line to make the team.

Currently, there’s a projected 20 new faces to the roster. The incredible amount of turnover is concerning given last year’s success, but the core of the team is fairly unchanged.

Sure, even Nick Caserio claimed that there would be roster movement preceding the finalization of this draft class, but for the most part this roster is set in place heading into the offseason.

Quick note: in bold is every rookie projected to make the roster.

Offense: 26

Quarterbacks (3): C.J. Stroud, Case Keenum, Davis Mills

Analysis: No changes necessary. Houston keeps three QBs to support Stroud. It’s Stroud and two guys to carry clip boards.

Running Backs (4): Joe Mixion, Dameon Pierce, Andrew Beck, Jawhar Jordan

Analysis: Houston resigned Dare Ogunbowale days before the draft, which should have signaled to fans that the team isn’t prioritizing RB. They waited until the sixth to take Jordan – a capable pass catcher and kick returner. Don’t be surprised if Ogunbowale makes the roster considering he was playing more than Pierce by season’s end.

Wide Receivers (6): Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson, Noah Brown, John Metchie III

Analysis: Surprise surprise – no wide receivers added in the draft. Not shocking (at least to this writer) as there’s already too many to count for an active roster. Xavier Hutchinson showed enough upside to give him another go and not chance him on the practice squad. Robert Woods and his enormous contract are a cap and talent casualty. Houston replaces his catches with Diggs and his talent with…. well everyone.

Tight Ends (3): Dalton Schultz, Cade Stover, Brevin Jordan

Cade Stover brings a little bit of everything to the Texans roster, which is a fantastic thing for the team but an alarming prospect for the other TEs on this roster. Tegan Quitoriano is a fine red zone target and blocker, but his inability to stay healthy is his downfall.

Offensive Tackles (5): Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard, Blake Fisher, David Sharpe, Charlie Heck

Analysis: Blake Fisher stirred the pot when he was drafted in the second round. Some thought it put incumbent right tackle Howard on notice. Some thought it was a natural addition to prioritize depth to protect Stroud. What Fisher’s addition does add is a young, talented tackle who has years of experience and plenty of potential – something that you can’t get enough of on the offensive line.

Texans decided to keep Charlie Heck after a good string play at the end of the season at right tackle. His depth will be needed given Howard’s health, but he could be out of a job if the Texans instead keep rookie seventh rounder LaDarius Henderson.

Interior Offensive Lineman (5): Shaq Mason, Juice Scruggs, Jarrett Patterson, Kendrick Green, Kenyon Green

Analysis: All eyes will be on this group to see how the pieces fall. It’s too early to knock Kenyon Green off the roster. We need to see how he recovers and returns to the team this offseason. Scruggs and Patterson, two rookies who had promising runs but spent a portion of the season on injured reserve will compete again for starting roles. Kendrick Green was a nice addition when Kenyon went down early in the season, before he himself left with a knee injury.

Defense: 24

Defensive Ends (4): Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Solomon Byrd, Derek Barnett

Analysis: I am currently projecting Dylan Horton starting the season on IR as he continues to recover from his cancer diagnosis and return to playing shape. Solomon Byrd is an older prospect at age 24, but possesses “flashes” of talent capable of exceeding at the next level. For now, he projects to be a pure passing-down rusher and simply the depth piece in this well-defined group.

Defensive Tackles (5): Foley Fatukasi, Denico Autry, Khalil Davis, Mario Edwards, Tim Settle

Analysis: This is an extremely muddled group. Rookie seventh rounder Marcus Harris ends on the practice squad. By the end of the season, Kurt Hinish and Khalil Davis were the second string DTs playing an even number of snaps. The front office likes both players, but Hinish doesn’t make the roster unfortunately as the Texans prioritize the athleticism of Davis over the run stopping of Hinish. Mario Edwards and Tim Settle round out the group as two newcomers to a completely overhauled position. Pre-season depth charts will be vital to get a better read on this group.

Linebackers (6): Christian Harris, Azeez Al-Shaair, Henry To’o To’o, Neville Hewitt, Jamal Hill, Jacob Phillips

Analysis: Jake Hansen is the casualty of the group as the Texans bank on Hill’s talent as a developmental linebacker. Hill will need two seasons before starting as he’s only played linebacker for one season. Jacob Phillips is an Uber-talented linebacker who has been plagued by two season ending injuries. The gamble pays off as he adds quality depth to a fairly staked group.

Cornerbacks (5): Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jeff Okudah, Desmond King II, Mike Ford

Analysis: Kamari Lassiter was among my favorite prospects in the draft. He will be an instant fan favorite – get ready for his aggressive run pursuit and clinical precision at the point of attack. Pairing him with Derek Stingley Jr. makes for one of the most talented CB duos in the AFC South. The question will be if either Okudah or C.J. Henderson can blossom into the player they were projected to be years ago. I predict only one of them will make the team.

Safeties (4): Jimmy Ward, Jalen Pitre, Calen Bullock, Eric Murray

Analysis: Adding Bullock gives the position a huge boost. He bolsters the deep coverage capabilities of this group, but there are still questions concerning if this position is stout enough to bind together a completely overhauled defense. Pitre’s third season will determine if he’s solved the coverage woes he experienced last season. And when it comes to Jimmy Ward, can he put together one more good season at the age of 32?

Special Teams: 3

Kicker: Ka’imi Fairbairn

Punter: Tommy Townsend

Long Snapper: Jon Weeks

Analysis: It’s unbelievable that Jon Weeks is still slinging long snaps at 38. He’s the heartbeat of the franchise. Tommy Townsend signed a new contract with the Texans and should be an improvement over Cameron Johnston. Ka’imi Fairbairn is among the most consistent and reliable kickers in the league. His role will be all the more important in 2024 with the new rules.

Rookies projected to not make the roster: Marcus Harris and LaDarius Henderson

Notable out: WR Robert Woods, DE Dylan Horton (illness), TE Tegan Quitoriano, DT Tim Settle, DT Kurt Finish, CB C.J. Henderson