The New York Yankees are looking to return to the playoffs after a disappointing 2023 season, but their hopes of doing so might hinge on the precarious health of one critical player.

After struggling to recover between preseason outings, franchise ace Gerrit Cole was sidelined. The Yankees are optimistic that he will be able to recover without surgery and return to the mound in the early part of this coming season, but after speaking with sources from other teams who have seen pitchers deal with similar injuries, ESPN MLB insider Buster Olney suggested that a season-ending surgery is still likely for Cole.

“I’ve asked folks with other teams who don’t have access to Gerrit Cole’s medical information, but they’ve seen this play out, and they know about … treatments and how players are dealt with and the language of these situations,” Olney reported on the “ESPN Baseball Tonight” podcast. “And every person I’ve asked said, ‘Oh, he’s headed to Tommy John surgery.’ Like there’s no doubt in their mind, OK? And again, they haven’t looked at a medical report, but they know the trajectory of pitchers with these situations.”

The typical recovery time for pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery is 12-to-18 months.

New York Yankees Ace Gerrit Cole Would Defy History If He Returns This Season

Cole, who is entering the fifth year of a nine-year, $324 million contract with the Yankees, is a famously durable pitcher. He has thrown at least 117 innings in every season of his 11-year career except for 2020, when he pitched just 73 but still led MLB in complete games.

That might be why the team is optimistic that he can recover from his elbow soreness relatively quickly.

“The initial recommendation for Cole’s troubled right elbow is rest, rehab and some conservative, non-surgical treatments,” the New York Post reported after Cole was evaluated by a specialist. “The belief is he will miss one to two months or perhaps just a bit more.”

Cole has been shut down from throwing for a few weeks and a more clear timeline could be determined once the rehab portion of his recovery begins. But if Cole does follow this best-case scenario, his famed durability will reach improbable heights at 33 years old.

“The track record of players with elbow injuries who rest and do (platelet-rich plasma) PRP injections and rehab them (and) never, like, going under the knife, that’s a small group of players,” Yahoo! Sports’ Jake Mintz said. “Now, is there a chance Gerrit Cole is fine? … Sure, absolutely, definitely a possibility. But I remain skeptical.”

Without Gerrit Cole, the New York Yankees Face a Tough Road to the Playoffs

If Cole is unable to return to the mound this season, the Yankees will face an even more challenging road to the playoffs. Even after adding free agent veteran Marcus Stroman this offseason, their rotation is thin and the team would be counting on remarkable improvement from Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt.

“I feel that this team has been overvalued in the marketplace and is one that’s likelier to miss the playoffs entirely than win the pennant,” ESPN Radio’s Paul Hembekides said on the “Baseball Tonight” podcast. “Their doomsday scenario is pretty straightforward. It obviously starts with Gerrit Cole not returning expediently or effectively… I could dream up a scenario in which the Yankees finish at the bottom of their division again and all hell breaks loose in the Bronx.”