After losing out on the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes last week, the Red Sox are pivoting hard in a familiar direction.
As first reported by Rob Bradford of WEEI, the club has expressed a “strong interest” in reuniting with James Paxton.
The 35-year-old left-hander became a free agent in November following a two-year stint with the Red Sox that saw him missing his entire first season due to injuries. Paxton was recovering from April ’21 Tommy John surgery when he signed a one-year, $10 million deal for ’22 with both club and player options for ’23. When the Red Sox declined to pick up his ’23 option, he exercised his.
After a slow ramp-up, the southpaw debuted on May 12. He was excellent in the first half of the season, posting a 2.83 ERA and striking out 31.1% of batters faced across 10 starts (56 innings) before the All-Star break. He earned American League Pitcher of the Month honors for June, and drew considerable interest before the trade deadline.
Following the break, however, Paxton struggled mightily. He only pitched 40 innings over the remainder of the season, and over just nine starts, posted a 6.98 ERA and 6.16 FIP. Whereas he’d pitched at least five innings in seven of 10 starts before the break, he failed to reach five complete frames in four of his second-half outings, including the final three. After allowing six earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings on Sept. 1, he went on the injured list with right knee inflammation and his season was over.
Overall, Paxton’s stint in Boston amounts to a 4.50 ERA over 19 starts totaling 96 innings. He hasn’t made it through a full season since 2019, when he made a career-high 29 starts for the Yankees.
Throughout Chaim Bloom’s four years helming Boston’s baseball operations, he often drew criticism for his short-term deals to aging arms; Paxton, Corey Kluber, Garrett Richards, and Jake Diekman come to mind. The result was an oft-blighted rotation, overflowing injured list, and three last-place finishes in the past four seasons.
What’s that they say about doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
Outfield intrigue
After unloading Alex Verdugo early in the month, the Red Sox have engaged in talks with Teoscar Hernandez.
On Christmas Eve, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote that things had progressed to the point of “discussing potential contract parameters.”
The first-time free agent should be familiar to Red Sox fans. The outfielder spent six of his eight Major League seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays before they traded him to the Seattle Mariners last November.
Hernandez, 31, brings durability and power to the equation. Since his first full MLB season in 2018, he’s played 743 of 870 regular-season games, including a career-high 160 games this year, and homered at least 22 times in each of the last five 162-game seasons.
Even in a down year in Seattle, Hernandez ranked in the 79th MLB percentile or better in expected slugging, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. He also offers above-average defense and speed; he finished the season in the 78th MLB percentile in arm strength, 88th in arm value, and 82nd in sprint speed.
There is some concern about drop-off. His average and on-base and slugging percentages all fell considerably over the last three seasons. After hitting .296/.346/.524 with a 5.4% home run rate and 24.9% strikeout rate in ’21, he slashed just .258/.305/.435 this year with rates of 3.8% and 31.%, respectively. He still homered 26 times, which would’ve ranked second on the Boston roster, but also racked up 211 strikeouts.
Hernandez’s bat is also a questionable fit for Fenway Park’s uniqueness. According to Baseball Savant’s Expected Home Runs feature, which analyzes various ballpark dimensions and factors, only 17 of his 26 home runs this season – and 65 of 85 over the past three years – would’ve been homers in Boston.
MLB Trade Rumors projects Hernandez will command a four-year, $80M contract in free agency this winter. Does that length coupled with the above concerns fit the Red Sox, who already have several young, club-controlled outfield options and four more years of Masataka Yoshida?
Perhaps. Signing Hernandez could be the prelude to a blockbuster starting trade, with one of said outfielders being shipped off for pitching.
Holiday fun
Several Red Sox players shared their holiday activities on social media. Here are some of the highlights:
Wilyer Abreu, Brayan Bello, and Zack Kelly celebrated their first Christmas as fathers.
Garrett Whitlock and his wife, Dr. Jordan Whitlock, PhD, announced earlier this month that they’re expecting their first child, a boy.
Brennan Bernardino and his family spent Christmas Eve ice skating at Wollman Rink in New York City’s Central Park.
