Although the New York Yankees have made sizeable splashes during the offseason and are projected to have a payroll over $300 million, they may not be done making moves. Looking to return to World Series contender status, the Yankees are trying their hardest to make upgrades in every area. They’ve already revamped the lineup with the Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo trades, and provided much-needed depth in the starting rotation by signing Marcus Stroman. But even with the Stroman signing, one of the Bronx Bombers’ biggest offseason goals was to acquire another top-tier pitcher to compliment Gerrit Cole. They attempted to do this in their pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he chose to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers. New York has also been in trade talks for Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease, but they are leery of sacrificing more top prospects for him.

There is another option in free agency, though: reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. The lefty is the best starting pitcher available in free agency, and there has been mutual interest in having him pitch in the Bronx. However, making a move for Snell would be another risky transaction for the Yankees.

On the surface, Snell looks like a can’t-miss pitcher in his prime. In 2023 with the San Diego Padres, he went 14-9 with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA and 182 ERA+. With a devastating fastball and nasty curveballs, sliders, and changeups, Snell accrued a career-high 234 strikeouts in 180 innings and allowed only 5.8 hits per nine innings. His Baseball Savant page is full of red; his whiff percentage (37.3) and strikeout percentage (31.5) are in the 98th and 94th percentiles, respectively, and his total pitching run value of 44 is in the 100th and highest percentile. But some of the other numbers indicate regression for the 31-year-old.

Snell has always been prone to walking batters, and 2023 was no different; he issued 99 free passes (the most in the majors), and his 13.3 walk percentage was in the fourth percentile (one of the worst in the league), resulting in a drastically higher FIP of 3.44. He was able to work around the walks by stranding runners on the basepaths (86.7 strand rate), but this was well above his career average (78.2 strand rate), indicating that this isn’t sustainable. The more concerning part of Snell’s game is that he rarely pitches beyond five innings. Because of his proficiency at striking out batters and his tendency to give out walks, his pitch count rises very quickly; this makes it much more difficult for him to pitch deep into games, and ultimately increases the bullpen’s workload. Considering that the Yankees’ bullpen would often falter late in the season due to overuse, Snell wouldn’t do the team any favors in that regard. Fortunately, the acquisition of Stroman (who regularly pitches deep into games) should counterbalance this.

A very minor concern with Snell is his fly ball rate, which combined with Yankee Stadium’s homer-friendly atmosphere would result in more long balls surrendered. Fortunately, he has plenty of experience pitching in Yankee Stadium as an opponent, which should serve him well. Ultimately, signing Snell would be a high-risk, high-reward move for the Yankees, depending if they use him properly. The Bronx Bombers already are banking on Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes Jr. to pitch at All-Star caliber levels and avoid injury, and adding another pitcher that carries risk of injury and/or inconsistency could make the rotation very problematic if things go wrong. However, Snell has the highest upside (two Cy Young awards) compared to Rodon and Cortes, so if he pitches at the level he’s capable of, he’d form a devastating one-two punch with Gerrit Cole. Having him work with renowned pitching coach Matt Blake should also allow the Yankees to deploy him at his best. Giving Snell a contract over $200 million would also seem like a gamble, especially when taking into account that the Yankees still need to sign Juan Soto to a long-term deal. But then again, this is the New York Yankees, the most valuable franchise in the league in terms of revenue, and their player payroll will already be surpassing $300 million for the first time in franchise history (and even then, the Mets and Dodgers already have passed that threshold). If they want to make an all-in push to win the 2024 World Series, then signing the reigning NL Cy Young winner would be an excellent step to pursuing that goal.