The Chicago Cubs are hoping that they can get into the postseason for the first time since 2020, but one unit on the roster could be the reason why they don’t.

After the dust settled on the 2023 regular season, the Chicago Cubs fell one game short of making their first playoff appearance since 2020.

For a while, it looked like they wouldn’t even sniff making it into the postseason, but a hot summer stretch turned around their year and had them comfortably holding a Wild Card spot while chasing the division title.

Their late collapse ensured they’d be sitting at home while teams battled it out to win the World Series.

Ownership and the front office emphatically stated they’d build a contender during the offseason, but they weren’t quite able to accomplish that goal.

They did, however, put together a roster that should be able to compete for an NL Central title and get into the playoffs.

Many projections put the Cubs just above a 50% chance to make it.

But, there’s one reason why ESPN Senior Writer David Schoenfield thinks that Chicago misses out on the postseason this year once again, and that reason is their starting rotation.

He sites them replacing Marcus Stroman with Shota Imanaga as “not necessarily an upgrade” since the star Japanese pitcher will be making his MLB debut this season.

Schoenfield also has ace Justin Steele as a prime regression candidate after putting up the best year of his career in 2023 with a 3.8 WAR, 3.06 ERA and 146 ERA+.

The makeup of the unit could also comeback and hurt them.

“Indeed, the Cubs will have Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and Jordan Wicks in their rotation — three pitchers with below-average fastball velocity. Yes, the defense will help, but the Cubs are zagging when everybody else is zigging,” the senior writer says.

All in all, it seems like if the Cubs don’t make the playoffs it’s because their starting rotation just isn’t good enough to compete in the National League that has some elite teams mixed with young, rising rosters ready to potentially take the next step.

Chicago had a prime opportunity to be ultra-aggressive and add elite talent, like their ownership and front office proclaimed.

That didn’t turn out to be the case.

“It feels like this team needed to make a big upgrade somewhere and failed to do that,” Schoenfield says.

Of course, the Cubs could dominate their division or win enough games to get into the playoffs as a Wild Card team, but it seems like this could be another tight race for Chicago.